Brawl of the Wild: Keys to victory for Montana Grizzlies, Montana State Bobcats (2024)

MISSOULA — The Brawl of the Wild is one of the most intense rivalry games in college football, and the latest edition has extra juice.

No. 3-ranked Montana (9-1, 6-1 Big Sky) and No. 4 Montana State (8-2, 6-1) will face off at noon Saturday at Washington-Grizzly Stadium. The winner will be crowned the outright Big Sky Conference champion and most likely receive a two or three seed in the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs.

MSU secured a share of the Big Sky title last year after beating UM 55-21 in Bozeman mere hours after ESPN's "College GameDay" was broadcast across the street from Bobcat Stadium. As has been the case in many recent seasons, the Bobcats will face a Grizzly team that's stout on defense and full of playmakers on offense.

"It's an extremely talented, much improved through the course of the season football team," MSU head coach Brent Vigen said Monday, "a team that's doing it with a very aggressive defense and an offense that as of late has really been consistent and has put up some big numbers, both rushing and passing. And they're always good on special teams. Of course, playing over there in a hostile environment is a challenge."

The Griz, who beat the Cats 29-10 at Wa-Griz in 2021, have won six straight games after losing 28-14 at then-winless Northern Arizona. They'll face an MSU squad that finished inches away from a win at top-ranked South Dakota State in Week 2 and suffered a down-to-the-wire loss at Idaho three weeks ago.

"Our opponent, they’re a good team," UM head coach Bobby Hauck said. "There’s no other way to describe them. But they’re a really good team. They’re leading the conference in scoring and rushing offense. People have had a lot of difficulty stopping them. It should be a good game and a fun week."

Here are three keys for each team:

3 keys to a Griz win

Contain the Cats' run game

Wherever I’ve gone around town this week, the first question Griz fans have asked me is some variation of this: How do the Griz stop the Cats’ run game? I’ve found the phrasing of that question interesting because the Griz come into the game with a rush defense that ranks first in the Big Sky and fourth nationally at just 84.8 yards allowed per game. I have yet to be asked how do the Cats plan to run against UM’s stout defense. Perhaps there’s some PTSD among the Griz faithful based on how the Cats have run the ball against UM. In winning five of the past six rivalry games, here is the Cats’ rush yardage each game: 439, 382, 229, 322 and 368 for an average of 348. In the one game the Griz won, they held Montana State to 96 yards on the ground.

The Griz were allowing 97.3 rush yards per game entering last year’s Brawl, or 973 total in their first 10 games. They then gave up 1,034 yards in the final three games — 439 to MSU and 453 to North Dakota State — for an average of 344.7. With a new coordinator in Ronnie Bradford, will things be different this time around for UM against MSU’s rush attack that ranks first in the Big Sky and second nationally at 302.1 yards per game? Quarterbacks Tommy Mellott and Sean Chambers and running backs Julius Davis, Jared White and Scottre Humphrey all rank in the top 15 in the Big Sky for rushing yards per game. The Griz haven’t allowed an individual to run for over 87 yards. The Cats have had 10 individual rushing performances of 90 or more yards.

Own the offensive trenches

Montana’s offensive line was hyped as the strength of not only the offense but the entire team heading into the season. That was hardly the case through the first four games of the year, punctuated by a poor outing at Northern Arizona allowing seven sacks. They’ve looked like a completely different group since then, flipping the switch along with the change in quarterback from pocket passer Sam Vidlak to dual-threat senior Clifton McDowell. The Griz discovered an offensive identity at that point with an accompanying proliferation in run blocking and widened offensive line splits instead of needing to hold up in extended pass protection as often. They’ve had that success while dealing with multiple injuries and rotating linemen, a sign of their depth.

How much is the improvement the line’s growth and how much is it facing inferior competition? The Griz will be tested more than they have so far against MSU’s defensive front. The Cats own the Big Sky’s No. 2 rush defense at 114.5 yards per game. They have four of the top 12 sack leaders in the conference and two of the top nine TFL leaders. UM has one of the better rush attacks MSU has faced, ranking third in the league at 192.8 yards per game. McDowell and running backs Eli Gillman and Nick Ostmo sit in the top 19 in the Big Sky for rush yards and are capable of busting long runs. McDowell has a trio of athletic receivers in Junior Bergen, Keelan White and Aaron Fontes, who are all in the top 18 in the Big Sky for receiving yards per game.

Start fast, stay consistent

It has been my gut feeling for quite a while now that the team that takes the first two-score lead, especially if it’s 14 or more points, will win the game. They’ll certainly be in the driver’s seat and could force the opponent to change the way they call plays if playing catch-up is necessary. Throwing the first punch or two could be where this game is ultimately won. Trying to come back against either of these defenses is no easy task. Montana leads the Big Sky and is fourth in the FCS at 15.2 points allowed per game. Montana State is close behind, second in the conference and 16th nationally at 19 points given up on average. The Grizzlies’ most points surrendered in a game this season are 28 and 23, while the Cats’ most points allowed are 30 and 24.

Neither team has had to rally from all that big of a deficit. The Griz have trailed in five games, overcoming four one-score deficits to win those. They’ve lost the only game in which they trailed by more than seven points. The Griz haven’t been in a position where they’ve needed a scoring drive to tie or win the game at the end of regulation. That’s the sign of a good squad, but it’s still a question mark about this team and one that might need answering in what could be a tight contest. The Cats attempted late rallies at South Dakota State and Idaho but failed and lost the games. The Griz have outscored their opponents 181-81 in the first half, while the Cats are 244-74. In the second half, MSU has outscored teams 194-116 while UM is 118-71.

—Frank Gogola,Montana beat writer

3 Keys to a Cats win

Strength in numbers

The Bobcats have boasted — by yards per carry — the best rushing offense in the FCS over the last two seasons, and the engines have been QBs Tommy Mellott and Sean Chambers. The duo has combined to rush for 3,002 yards on 6.9 yards per carry since the start of the 2022 season, and that production has forced defenses to pick their poison. Teams can focus on stopping the QB run, but that allows Mellott and Chambers to make a simple read: hand off to the RB. If defenders hesitate, Chambers can burst up the middle and Mellott can beat them to the edge (and vice versa). Stack the box with more than seven players, and the QBs are plenty capable of completing passes. MSU is fourth in the FCS in passing yards per attempt (9.12).

Opposing defenses can often disregard one player during a run play because many QBs will only hand off. Elite running QBs like Mellott and Chambers remove that luxury. They tilt the math in MSU's favor. A box of six, seven or even eight defenders always has to contend with eight or nine Bobcats (a QB, a running back, five offensive linemen, and one or two tight ends/fullbacks). Only smart, disciplined, sound tackling and talented defenses can overcome that numbers disadvantage. The Griz have all of those traits, but that doesn't mean they'll be able to stop anMSU offense full of all-conference players (albeit without All-Big Sky first team fullback Derryk Snell and possibly without starting tight end Treyton Pickering).

South Dakota State and Idaho are the only teams that have been able to slow down MSU's rushing offense, and some of that can be explained by an icy field (at SDSU in the 2022 FCS semifinals) and self-inflicted wounds from the Cats. If he Cats can execute their option-heavy run offense like they usually do, they might get close (and perhaps surpass) their FCS-leading scoring average of 43.8 points per game on Saturday.

Won't be beat (deep)

MSU's defensive backs have played significantly better than last year's, thanks largely to the emergence of free safety Dru Polidore, the addition of cornerback Jon Johnson and the growth of strong safety Rylan Ortt. But the secondary faces some questions.

Polidore missed the last two games with wrist, hand and finger injuries. The sophom*ore Air Force transfer will be available Saturday, according to Vigen, but it's hard to know how effective he'll be, especially if he continues to wear a big club on his right hand.

MSU nickelback Level Price Jr. and cornerback Simeon Woodard have also been banged up at various points this season, and co-starting nickel Caden Dowler suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2.

Fortunately for the Cats, CB/NB Miles Jackson, CB Andrew Powdrell and FS Blake Stillwell have stepped up whenever Polidore, Price and Woodard have been out. That depth paired with MSU's elite D-line could stymie a Griz offense capable of completing long passes (7.65 yards per attempt, good for 30th in the FCS).

MSU starting linebacker and team captain Danny Uluilakepa is slated to return from an elbow injury, per Vigen. His presence will help the Cats defend both the run and pass.

Unfazed in the third phase

Other than placekicking, MSU has shined on special teams this season.

Brendan Hall is averaging 47.5 yards per punt and leads a punt team that has a 44.46-yard net punting mark, both No. 1 in the FCS. The 6-foot-9 SMU transfer has also booted 66 touchbacks on 79 kickoffs. No other FCS team has reached 45 touchbacks.

MSU has blocked five kicks and four punts, tied for second and third, respectively, in the FCS.

Hall was replaced by Casey Kautzman at placekicker after Hall missed field goal attempts from 48 and 43 yards at Idaho on Oct. 28. Kautzman has been perfect on his four field goal tries this season, although two of his 16 point after attempts have been blocked (both last week against Eastern Washington).

Ty McCullouch is the lone Bobcat to return a punt for a TD this season, and Taco Dowler has been in the punt return role since recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. Neither Dowler nor kickoff returner Marqui Johnson have made a game-changing return so far this season, but both took it to the house last season, so the threat they pose could affect UM's game plan.

MSU won't need to attempt many field goals or punts if its offense is humming, and Hall usually renders opposing kick returners obsolete. If the offense does stall out, the Cats will need the punt and field goal units to remain solid Saturday. Another blocked punt and/or a big return could turn the tide.

—Victor Flores,Montana State beat writer